The Global Trade Survival Playbook for SMEs

A Practical Toolkit for UK SMEs Facing a Volatile World 

Introduction: What This Playbook Is (and Why Now) 

You don’t need reminding that we live in a volatile world. What used to feel far away — a trade war, a distant conflict, a political upset — now hits local SMEs with full force. Whether it’s soaring input prices, disrupted supply chains, or difficulty accessing finance, the question for many founders isn’t just “how do we grow?” but “how do we stay afloat?” 

This playbook is here to help. It’s grounded in a live, real-world conversation hosted by sherloc with three expert voices: 

• Matt Travis (Managing Director, Enzygo; President, Barnsley & Rotherham Chamber of Commerce) 

• Samantha Tubb (Chair, Elementary B; Angel Investor; Non-Exec Director) 

• Nicolas Le Bléïs (Historian & Professor of Geopolitics, Moderator) 

They didn’t sugarcoat the challenges. But they also shared a clear message: SMEs are not powerless. With the right strategies, information, and mindset, you can build resilience - and find opportunity. 

Chapter 1: What’s Really Driving Instability 

Global Trends, Local Ripples 

Global events aren’t abstract. As Nicolas Le Bléïs put it: 

“Something that happens on one side of the world can ripple through to even the tiniest company in the UK.” 

From the war in Ukraine to US–China tensions, from energy prices to AI acceleration - the ripple effect is real. And for SMEs, the consequences hit hard: inflation, transport cost spikes, tighter lending conditions, and uncertain budgets. 

“It’s like the butterfly effect,” said Matt Travis. “You get something like the Suez Canal blockage, and suddenly your Christmas stock can’t arrive in time. It impacts SMEs first and hardest.” 

Meanwhile, Samantha Tubb added: 

“Access to finance is a crunch point right now. I’m seeing multiple companies really struggling - debt, equity, grants - it's tightening, especially for certain founders.” 

These macro-level shifts create a tough ask: how can SMEs plan for the future, when the world keeps changing under their feet?  

This is where resilience, data, and nimbleness come in. 

Chapter 2: Red Flags and Weak Signals 

How to See Risk Before It Hits 

The panelists shared a clear call to action: don’t wait for disaster. Learn to read the signs. 

🔍 Watch policy timelines 

“The biggest economic risk right now?” said Matt. “The Chancellor’s Budget in November. Because that’s when you get changes to National Insurance, minimum wage, employer rights. A lot of SMEs won’t react in time - and that’s a real danger.” 

🧮 Track finance tightening 

“When you see finance drying up - both debt and equity - across multiple sectors, that’s a red flag,” warned Samantha. “It’s not always a lead indicator, but it tells you something about where we are.” 

📉 Look beyond your bubble 

“One of the biggest risks is information bias,” Samantha explained. “Only reading what confirms your assumptions puts your business at serious risk. You need a broader radar.” 

🌍 Understand global context — but don’t panic 

Nicolas reminded us, “Yes, we’re seeing a rise in instability - but businesses still need to function, plan, hire, and grow. It’s not about fear. It’s about preparation.” 

Chapter 3: Strategic Moves for SME Resilience 

This is the heart of the playbook: practical strategies to help you stay nimble, plan better, and adapt faster. 

🔧 1. Forecast with Flexibility 

“Three-year forecasts, forward-looking KPIs, monthly P&Ls - these aren’t corporate luxuries,” said Matt Travis. “They’re survival tools for SMEs.” 

Start with what you can see: 

• What are your cost drivers? 

• What if transport or energy prices rise 15%? 

• Can you map your cash runway against different revenue scenarios? 

sherloc can help with this - but any SME can begin with simple models. 

🧭 2. Diversify with Purpose 

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket: 

• One product? 

• One supplier? 

• One major client? 

• 
  

“If you’ve only got one product and one customer, you’re extremely vulnerable,” Matt said. “It’s about scope - spreading your services, your markets, your suppliers.” 

🧠 3. Use Your Data - And Your Team 

Your front-line staff know things. Your customers drop hints. Your data has patterns. 

“Don’t believe your own hype,” warned Samantha. “And don’t make decisions in isolation. Include your team - they’ll often see the writing on the wall before you do.” 

Encourage honest reporting. Create space for challenge. Share insights across functions. 

⚡ 4. Stay Nimble on Costs 

“I've seen companies grow quickly, take on big cost bases - and then struggle when things slow down,” said Samantha. “Right-sizing, fast, is crucial.” 

Consider: 

• Variable vs fixed costs 

• Scalable contracts or services 

• Remote work vs office overheads 

• Contracting vs hiring 

📣 5. Communicate & Learn from Others 

“Your network is your early warning system,” Matt shared. “Talk to other founders. Use your Chamber. Know what’s happening.” 

“There’s more SME collaboration now than ever,” he added. “Don’t isolate yourself.” 

This playbook is one way to start that conversation. 

Chapter 4: Practical Tips for Exporting in 2025 

Exporting has always carried risk - but in today’s climate, it can feel especially daunting. Yet the panel was clear: international growth is still worth pursuing - if you do it smartly. 

“Absolutely, it’s worth it,” said Samantha. “But it has to be targeted and focused - not scattergun.” 

“Be strategic,” added Matt. “There’s a lot of government support out there. Know where you’re going, who you’re targeting, and what the demand really is.” 

Key Considerations: 

• Target the right markets 

• Use existing networks (Chambers, embassies, trade missions) 

• Diversify with purpose 

• Stay updated on trade risks (tariffs, currency, compliance) 

“Diversifying your markets makes you more resilient,” Samantha added. “It spreads your risk. But yes, it requires commitment and strategic clarity.” 

Chapter 5: Advice from the Experts (Quotes & Takeaways) 

Let the voices of experience guide your next step: 

“The biggest risk right now? The Chancellor’s Budget.” - Matt Travis  

“Access to finance is tightening fast - and it’s hitting SMEs hard.” - Samantha Tubb  

“You have to be willing to fail - and adapt quickly.” - Samantha Tubb  

“Culture will make or break your company.” - Matt Travis  

“Don’t build an echo chamber. Stay curious.” - Samantha Tubb  

“If you’ve got the wrong size of business for your revenue - you’re bleeding capital.” - Matt Travis  

“Geopolitics impacts people. Behind every SME is a family, a team, a dream.” - Nicolas Le Bléïs 

Chapter 7: Final Thoughts - You’re Not Alone 

It’s easy to feel isolated as a business owner - especially in uncertain times. But you’re not alone. 

“You’ve been through COVID, Brexit, war, economic shocks - and you’re still here,” said Nicolas Le Bléïs. “That says something.” 

The decisions you make today - to plan better, build resilience, stay informed - can protect and empower not just your business, but your team, your customers, and your community. 

This playbook is just a starting point. Let it guide your thinking, prompt new conversations, and support smarter decisions. 

Together, we’re stronger. 

📩 Want to talk through your next step?  Reach out to the sherloc team for a chat.